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The Royal Baby - Retail Estimates
These estimates have received widespread coverage all over the world, including CNN, the Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, the Canadian National Broadcasting Corporation, Austrian TV, Izvestia, Hello! Magazine, Evening Standard, Vogue, the Times, the Telegraph, Guardian, Bloomberg, Euronews, Hollywood Reporter, IBTimes, 20 Minuten Online, Wirtualna Polska and (a first for us) La Gazetta della Sport.
The growing interest throughout the world in the first child of William and Katherine, Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, has significant implications for retail sales and suppliers. The date of the royal birth has been announced as 13 July 2013. The new baby, male or female, will immediately become third in line to the throne.
The Centre for Retail Research, Nottingham, estimates that the birth will boost linked-in retail sales by around £243 million. This figure covers the nine weeks between 1 July 2013 and 31 August.
|Souvenirs and toys||£80 million|
|Books, DVDs and Media||£76 million|
Supporters and well-wishers may celebrate the royal birth itself and there will also be some form of celebration for the christening.
Festivities. We expect £25 million to be spent on food for 4.8 million people, who will join in the mostly local and informal festivities and parties, including those in back gardens. Increased spending on alcohol is expected to amount to £62 million. Three million bottles of champagne and sparkling wine will be opened to celebrate the new baby. Few organised local events will be held, but there can be plenty of informal celebrations, both barbeques and in public houses. We expect plenty of people, not necessarily fervent royalists, to welcome the happy event in a demonstrative way.
Souvenirs and toys. £80 million is likely to be spent on souvenirs and toys including items sold overseas. Fourteen million souvenirs with a total value of £56 million and toys (£24 million) are likely to be sold to enthusiasts and collectors.
Books, DVDs and Media. Around £40 million will be spent on books and £36 million on DVD and media connected to this event and to the Royal Family.
Exports.There is considerable interest in this event across the world, but particularly in North America, parts of Europe and Australia and New Zealand. The Cambridges are seen as a 'good news' story and surprisingly normal. Sales abroad of souvenirs, toys, books and DVD/media are expected to be £37 million. This figure includes overseas sales by online UK retailers.
Since the announcement that the Duchess was pregnant, there has been considerable interest in her changing shape, the sex of the baby, what new things she is wearing, as well as the baby products that are being acquired. The parents are making great efforts to prevent knowledge of the sex of the baby leaking out, so little if any information is currently available about what will be in the nursery including whether the prevailing colour will be blue or pink. News that a particular product has been bought by the Cambridges will be very helpful to its manufacturers.
We expect sales of prams and pushchairs to rise by 13% (an increase of £33 million to a new total of £288 million) as new parents 'trade up' to more exclusive baby carriages, following a trend that is expected to be set by the royals. The baby carriage will become a must-have status symbol and the lucky manufacturer can expect a similar boost in sales to that achieved by iCandy peach when Victoria Beckham adopted one for her daughter Harper. iCandy's most recent figures are unavailable, but the company has grown from £3.6 million sales in 2009 to £9.6 million in 2011.
Similar gains are expected to be made by the manufacturers of the baby's clothes, its crib, its toys and any product associated with the baby or its parents. Suppliers are expected, also, to exploit any such link in sales to export markets including those such as North America where interest in the new baby is strong.
For journalists. A copy of the press release issued on 17 June 2013 can be downloaded from the cloud here:
We have revisited the summer estimates and revised them with the benefit of hindsight in February 2014. The new estimates, which are broadly in line with those given above, are provided here: