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Shopping For Christmas.
Shopping for Christmas in Britain and France: The End of Frugality Fatigueİ
The Centre for Retail Research, sponsored by Kelkoo, Europe's largest e-commerce website, analysed the prospects for Christmas 2009 and the January sales 2010.
Our study, presented in September 2009, found plenty of reasons to be cheerful. People were optimistic. The economy was improving. Families wanted a 'treat'. The frugality preached by the media and by others concerned to show that, whatever we do, world disaster comes ever closer, has produced frugality fatigueİ. Why not have another glass of wine?
Jingle Bells Mean Jingle Tills
The trendline from 1999 of monthly retail sales in the UK is upwards with a peak every Christmas, followed by a fall in January.
The Background
Christmas and the January sales are critically important for retailers, accounting for 23% of annual retail sales over a ten week period. A poor Christmas, as seen in 2008, led to 20 major retailers going into administration, the loss of 40,000 jobs, and shop voids rising to 10% in February 2009.
- The economy was moving out of recession on an upward path from July 2009
- Consumer confidence was increasing after the problems of late 2008 and early 2009.
The Forecast UK
We forecast that Christmas sales in 2009 (the 6 weeks mid-November to the end of December) would rise to £44,700 million, a year-on-year increase of £832 million. Not everyone made similar predictions: Deloitte's for example did a European customer survey and decided that Xmas spending would fall by £500 million.
The outcome was an increase of £856 million, which was pretty close to the CRR figure.
- In Christmas 2008 sales fell by -£27 million
- In Christmas 2007 sales grew by +£852 million
We expected January 2010 to produce retail sales of £21,956 million (up £320 million over January 2009), although there was a mixed picture. Thick snow was beautiful but kept shoppers away from stores, most retailers had relatively low sales stocks, and the 2009 VAT increase prompted early spending.
Online Spending
We forecast that online spending will reach £8,960 million this Christmas, representing 20p in every retail £1 spent. This year shoppers said that 72% intended to use online retailers to buy goods at this Christmas (67% last year) and 38% would buy a majority of their Christmas goods online.
Online sales in Christmas 2009 were driven by clothing, accessories and footwear, electrical goods, and health and beauty items.
The First Online Christmas
The first online Christmas where 50% of Christmas purchases are made online will be December 2015 (assuming a 24% online growth rate) or 2021 (if growth is rather slower at a still-impressive 16%). Please note that this does not imply that shoppers will no longer go to high streets, simply that a large proportion will buy their toys, books, games, clothes, perfumes and cosmetics online.
Christmas Spending by Region 2009
These figures are derived from a survey of 1,4000 consumers (all ages, both sexes) by region carried out by ourselves. The highest spenders were in London (£768.60) and the South East (£706.63) and the South West (£605.89) and Wales (£619.83) spend the least.
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Spending on Christmas 2009 by Category and Region (in
£'s)
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Presents
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Decorations
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Food/Drink
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Travel
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Totals
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Index of Total Christmas Spending
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|
| NE |
401.58
|
46.98
|
164.56
|
30.64
|
643.76
|
96.8
|
| NW |
393.30
|
42.30
|
159.30
|
28.32
|
623.22
|
93.7
|
| Yorks/ Humberside |
395.80
|
50.23
|
161.67
|
38.22
|
645.92
|
97.1
|
| E Midlands |
429.60
|
42.40
|
156.75
|
24.39
|
653.14
|
98.2
|
| W Midlands |
432.45
|
49.11
|
168.28
|
26.99
|
676.83
|
101.8
|
| East |
409.21
|
41.22
|
152.20
|
39.82
|
642.45
|
96.6
|
| London |
466.65
|
52.49
|
201.26
|
48.20
|
768.60
|
115.6
|
| SE |
425.50
|
55.20
|
184.67
|
41.26
|
706.63
|
106.3
|
| SW |
369.00
|
42.68
|
156.24
|
37.97
|
605.89
|
91.1
|
| Wales |
372.41
|
45.81
|
166.93
|
34.68
|
619.83
|
93.2
|
| Scotland |
403.82
|
34.52
|
148.94
|
52.33
|
639.61
|
96.2
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| N Ireland |
402.37
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44.28
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173.26
|
36.77
|
656.68
|
98.8
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| Averages |
413.04
|
46.31
|
168.01
|
37.56
|
664.92
|
100.00
|
(source: Centre for Retail Research Consumer survey)
FRANCE
French citizens were more optimistic about their economy than the British in 2009 and were looking forward to Christmas and the sales. Christmas in France tends to be less exotic but more family-focused than in the UK. People spend rather less.
Forecast
Christmas sales in France were €72,369 million (up €1,206 million), rather less than the sales increase in Christmas 2007 (+€2,255 million) but a great improvement on 2008 increase of €301 million.
Online Spending
We expected online spending in France to reach €7,599 million in Christmas 2009, representing 10˘ every retail euro €1 spent. This year shoppers said that 69% intended to use online retailers to buy goods at this Christmas (64% last year) and 12% expected they would buy a majority of their Christmas goods online. French online sales continue to grow at more than 30% YoY.
Online sales Christmas 2009 was be driven by clothing and textiles, electronic items and electrical goods, and sales of books, CDs and DVDs, all of which had been growing strongly during 2008 and 2009. The small but fastest-growing category was items for the home.
Le Premier Noël Français en Ligne
At slightly less than current rates of online growth (22%) e-commerce retailers will be responsible for more than one-quarter (28.4%) of Christmas goods by 2015 and perhaps one-half by 2021.
