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World Cup 2014
The Football World Cup in Brazil is a festival of football and at the same time a retail opportunity. This is the second World Cup that the Centre for Retail Research has forecast, and, as always, we concentrate solely upon the England team's impact on retailers in the UK.
This independent research was funded by VoucherCodes.co.uk, the UK supplier of voucher codes, restaurant vouchers, and deals for more than 2,500 retailers.
The World Cup is more than football: it will be the biggest retail event in 2014.
If England gets through the Group stage to the Round of 16, we forecast that
- sales of retail merchandise will rise by £1,117 mn
- spending in bars, hotels, pubs and restaurants will rise £175 mn.
The main categories of retail spending by stage 2 (Round of 16):
- food and drink - £508 mn (for consumption at home, BBQs, partying, celebrating or drowning one's sorrows), £228 mn on food and £280 mn on drink.
- TV electrical - spending £255 mn mainly to get a better/bigger view.
- Sportswear - England kit, with babywear and petwear likely to score well.
- Souvenirs - £71 mn, including match-specific souvenirs.
Every goal scored
Intense econometric analysis by CRR shows that every goal scored by an England footballer - right the way to the final - would be worth £165.3 mn to England's retailers and an extra £33.2 mn to pubs, hotels and restaurants. Last time it was only £126 mn.
If England reaches the final, we expect:
- Spending on retail merchandise to rise by a further £1,032 mn on top of the £1,117 mn by the Round of 16 (total £2,149 mn).
- Spending in bars, hotels, pubs and restaurants will rise by an extra £256 mn further to the £175 mn achieved by the Round of 16 (total £431 mn).
If England go all the way, therefore, this will be worth a total of £2,580 mn for Britain's retailers and pubs, clubs restaurants etc.
If England does less well
If England does not get to the final, but crashes out in the Round of 16 or thereabouts, then the increase in retail sales will still be significant. We expect retail sales will rise by a total of £1,547 mn, pubs, clubs, restaurants by £336 mn, making a combined increase in sales of £1,883 mn for the whole series.
An online and mobile festival
Internet retailers are expected to score from the World Cup, their share of total retail spending being 14.3% to Stage 2, rising to 15.1% of total sales by the final. Online food and drink sales, usually proportionately small, may well benefit most in the World Cup campaign as football supporters have their requirements delivered.
Ordering by mobile is expected to be 21.5% of online sales
The Centre for Retail Research has carried out a number of research projects into the retail impact of special events, including the World Cup, EUFA, the Olympics, the Royal Wedding, the birth of Prince George and the Queen's Diamond Jubilee.