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Shopping for the World Cup
The Football World Cup is a festival of football and at the same time a retail opportunity.
We forecast that if England got through the Group stage and Stage 2 this should increase retail sales by £987 million plus additional sales in pubs, clubs and cafes of £110 million. We calculated that If England got through to the Finals, then there would be a trade boost of £2,011 million, plus £305 million in pubs, clubs and cafes.
This research was funded by Kelkoo, Europe's largest e-commerce website.
Intense econometric analysis by CRR showed that after the Group stage every goal scored by an England footballer would mean £126 million for Britain's retailers.
However the lads not only let themselves down, but let British shopkeepers down as well. They did sell a lot of grub, booze, souvenirs, TV sets and football strips but were left with around £100 million of unwanted World Cup merchandise after England's sudden exit. In the event, world Cup sales were a not-to-be-sneezed at £600 million.
Having examined who were England's opponents in the Group stage, we did not believe that even England could do anything except win the Group (although we did map out an alternative and much harder road to the Finals if they qualified as a Group stage runner up).
French retailers were even more badly affected. They expected to benefit by €874 million by the end of Stage 2 (plus €92 million in cafés/clubs) and up to €1,618 million if France had got through to the final, plus additional spending of €247 million in cafés/ clubs. If the English see every sporting failure as a deep national humiliation, the problems of Les Bleus on and off the pitch were perceived a being a corrosive national disaster, a sort of l'île flottant of self-defeat.
We expected UK online sales of merchandise to be £116 million by Stage 2 rising to a total of £205 million if England were a finalist. This would be 10.2% of total World Cup retail spending, with 15% of all TV and electrical shopping being done online.
The next major sporting fixture with significant retail implications is, of course, the Olympic Games. Has anyone heard where the 2012 Olympics are to be held?